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Karzai’s plan in a Post-US Afghanistan

December 10, 2010

Karzai seeking security in a post-AmericanAfghanistan.

Karzai the Chameleon will forever change his colours like his loyalties. Is this his strategic thinking or an act of desperation.

His constant changing of minds, his shifting loyalties and alliances are the traits of a desperate man, with no real tangible authority or clout. A man fighting for survival trying to weigh up the political storm and will stand behind whoever comes out top in this storm. He was an American vessel, an American mouthpiece and knows very well he will be ditched whent he Americans will leave.


He is a man trying to fight for survival and also as a Pashtun knows very well the unwritten Pashtun code of Pakthunwali. He is on anti-depresants for a reason, let us try to weigh up his options.

If the N.Alliance fail to maintain their American delivered power they will surely cut and run. Without the N.Allaince Karzai is of no use to
the Indians, who will not wish to give support to a wanted man with zero clout and influence in Afghanistan. Karzai’s visit to Russia has proven less effective as the Russians are looking at post-American – Afghanistan which will inevitably not include Karzai. NATO have no patience or place in a post American Afghanistan accept through partners like Pakistan. America have lost faith in Karzai a long time ago and have no need for him when the Afghanistan war shall end. Beyond this he really has no relevance nor does he carry any weight in Afghanistan when the war ends. Turkey, Iran & Pakistan are aligned in their geo-strategic views and also have no place for Karzai and like all the major partners see him as a liability.

Ultimately it is the Taliban who will decide the fate of Karzai and the only nation that has some clout with the Taliban is Pakistan.

But why should Pakistan pay any attention to Karzai after his 9 odd years of poisonous venom spewed towards Pakistan a complicit agent in a campaign to demonise and humiliate Pakistan.

Pakistan should ditch Karzai and leave him to his Pashtun brethren to decide his fate but Karzai has an ace of cards up his sleeve, a protected pawn in this game.

This pawn is Bramadagh Bugti and his upper echelons hiding inside Afghanistan – wanted criminal on terrorist charges in Pakistan. Bramadagh Bugti is leverage between India & Pakistan. Bugti is a wanted man in Pakistan and a key asset to destabilise Pakistan for India who have even given him ample support through Indian Consulates inside Afghanistan. The Indians have even provided Bugti with his ownIndian passport, therefore Bugti is a key asset for India.

India is calculative and will not wish to incite the full wrath of the Taliban by giving sanctuary to Karzai but would like their Pakistani destabilising asset Bugti secured.

Pakistan at all costs will want the wanted terrorist Bramadagh Bugti and all his aids neutralised.

Karzai will sell Bugti to the highest bidder, the highest price will come in the shape of sanctuary and safe haven for an alienated and lonely Karzai.

Pakistan also has considerable influence over the Taliban and may help restore some honour for Karzai by giving him a role in the post American Afghanistani government.

In sincerity I really do not see Karzai in any future post American government and it really is a fight for survival. Karzai is measuring who has the greater influence in Afghanistan & acts accordingly so anything he says is taken with a pinch of salt. Ansar Ul Haq.

 

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